Welcome to Economics International Inc (EII), a Washington DC research and consulting corporation. This website features the research of William R. Cline, President of EII.
Carbon-Equivalent Taxes on US Meat (July 2020; rev. December). — Almost 6 percent of US greenhouse gas emissions come from methane and nitrous oxide in the livestock sector. This study calculates carbon-equivalent consumption taxes for beef, milk, pork and chicken that could accompany fossil-fuel taxes or regulations in the rest of the economy. Beef production is much more emissions-intensive than that of pork or chicken. Methane from digestion of plant material (enteric fermentation), almost entirely from cattle, accounts for almost half of emissions. At a social cost of carbon dioxide of $75 per ton, the carbon-equivalent tax would be about 20 percent of average retail prices for beef, 4 percent for milk, and about 3 percent for pork and chicken. Compensation to low-income households would be appropriate, as would partial exemption for certified farms and ranches once low-emission feeding and genetic techniques become clearer or widespread testing of animals for enteric methane becomes feasible. (See Working Papers.)
Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE) As A Reduced-form Climate Model (May 2020). — This study examines the paradox that the path of realized global warming by a given year is linear in cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide even though the corresponding eventual equilibrium warming is only logarithmic in atmospheric concentration. It attributes this paradox to the legacy effect of a large atmospheric stock of natural and anthropogenic carbon dioxide relative to current emissions, a rising fraction of emissions retained in the atmosphere, and a rising path of emissions. The study then estimates parameters relating realized warming to cumulative emissions using estimates in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for the high-emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (RCP8.5). These estimates constitute a transparent reduced-form climate model that can be useful for analyzing the economic costs and benefits of alternative abatement scenarios. (See Working Papers.)
Calculating the China Shock to US Employment: An Input-Output Labor-Accounting Approach (March 2020). — This study uses input-output labor-accounting to estimate the impact of rising imports from China on US employment. Our counterfactual analysis incorporates offsets from substitution for imports from other countries, increased US exports to China and induced exports to other countries, and job gains in downstream sectors using imported inputs. The study finds that from 2000 to 2016, the China shock displaced 716,000 direct and indirect jobs in manufacturing, 14.3 percent of the period’s decline, but created 39,000 jobs in non-manufacturing. The net loss of 676,000 jobs was far below widely cited estimates of about 2 million divided evenly between manufacturing and non-manufacturing. (See Working Papers.)
Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2018 — This report continued the periodic series estimated by Dr. Cline at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in 2008-17. (See Working Papers.) New estimates for November 2020 are available by subscription. Specially tailored estimates (e.g. different base month, additional countries, or addressing specific issues) can also be commissioned. For information, please contact wrc@econintl.
Analyzing the international economy,
Economics International Inc is a sub-chapter S corporation established in 1981. In its first decade, it provided the Latin American Economic Outlook on a subscription basis, producing a total of 40 reports on the largest Latin American economies. In 1987 EII published the monograph Informatics and Development.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, EII provided major individual economic studies on Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil for official-sector and corporate clients, in addition to expert witness work regarding valuation of sovereign debt. From 2006 to 2015 the corporation’s work focused on economic translations. In October 2018 EII launched its website featuring Dr. Cline’s ongoing policy research (see Working Papers). This site also provides a compilation of Dr. Cline’s past work (see Publications).
William R. Cline is President of Economics International Inc. He is Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), where he was a Senior Fellow from the Institute’s inception in 1981 through 2017. He was formerly Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, where he held a joint appointment with PIIE; Deputy Managing Director and Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance; Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution; Deputy Director for Trade and Development Research at the US Treasury Department; Ford Foundation Visiting Professor in Brazil; and Lecturer and Assistant Professor at Princeton University. He received a PhD in Economics from Yale University and graduated summa cum laude from Princeton University. He is the author of 26 books and numerous articles.
and financial markets
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