Publications

Books

The Right Balance for Banks: Theory and Evidence on Optimal Capital Requirements (Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 2017). See PIIE1.

Managing the Euro Area Debt Crisis (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 2014). See PIIE2.

with Guntram B. Wolff, eds., Resolving the European Debt Crisis, Special Report 21 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 2012). See PIIE3.

 Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, May 2010). See PIIE5

Global Warming and Agriculture:  Impact Estimates by Country (Washington:  Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, July 2007). See PIIE6.

The United States as a Debtor Nation (Washington:  Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development, 2005). See PIIE7. 

Trade Policy and Global Poverty (Washington:  Center for Global Development and Institute for International Economics, 2004). See PIIE8.

Trade and Income Distribution (Washington:  Institute for International Economics, 1997). See PIIE9.

International Debt Reexamined (Washington:  Institute for International Economics, 1995). See PIIE10.

International Economic Policy in the 1990s (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1994)

The Economics of Global Warming (Washington:  Institute for International Economics, 1992). See PIIE11.

United States External Adjustment and the World Economy (Washington, DC:  Institute for International Economics, 1989)

The Future of World Trade in Textiles and Apparel (Washington, DC:  Institute for International Economics, 1987).

Exports of Manufactures from Developing Countries: Performance and Prospects for Market Access (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1984).

International Debt:  Systemic Risk and Policy Response (Washington, DC:  Institute for International Economics, 1984).

editor, Trade Policy in the 1980s (Washington, DC:  Institute for International Economics, 1983)

with Sidney Weintraub, editors, Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1981).

and associates, World Inflation and the Developing Countries (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1981).

editor, Policy Alternatives for a New International Economic Order:  An Economic Analysis (New York: Praeger Publishers for the Overseas Development Council, 1979).

with R. Albert Berry, Agrarian Structure and Productivity in Developing Countries (Baltimore:  Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979).

with Enrique Delgado, editors, Economic Integration in Central America (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1978).

with Noboru Kawanabe, T.O.M. Kronsjo, and Thomas Williams, Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round:  A Quantitative Assessment (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1978).

International Monetary Reform and the Developing Countries (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1976)

Potential Effects of Income Redistribution on Economic Growth:  Latin America Cases (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1972).

Economic Consequences of a Land Reform in Brazil (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Co., 1970).

Selected monographs, articles in journals and books, working papers, and policy briefs

“U.S. Median Household Income Has Risen More Than You Think.” Cato Journal, Vol. 39, no. 1, Winter 2019, pp. 213-28.  See MedInc.

“US Median Household Income Has Risen More Than You Think,” EII Working Paper 18-01. (Washington:  Economics International Inc, October 2018). See: EIIWP18-01.

“The New Tax Law’s Impact on Inequality:  Minor but Worse if Accompanied by Regressive Spending Cuts,” Policy Brief  No. 18-3 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 2018). See PB18-3.

“Will Corporate Tax Cuts Cause a Large Increase in Wages?” Policy Brief No. PB-17-30 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 2017). See PB17-30.

“Trade and Fiscal Deficits, Tax Reform, and the Dollar:  General Equilibrium Impact Estimates.” Working Paper WP 17-9 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 2017). See WP17-9.

“The Ryan-Brady Cash Flow Tax:  Disguised Protection, Exaggerated Revenue, and Increased Inequality,” Policy Brief  No. PB-17-4 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2017). See PB17-4.

“Systemic Implications of Problems at a Major European Bank,” Policy Brief No. PB16-19 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2016).  See PB16-19.

“Benefits and Costs of Higher Capital Requirements for Banks.” Working Paper WP 16-6 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 2016). See WP16-6.

“Further Statistical Debate on ‘Too Much Finance.” Working Paper WP 15-16 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2015). See WP15-16.

“From Populist Destabilization to Reform and Possible Debt Relief in Greece,” Policy Brief No. PB15-12 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 2015).  See PB15-12.

“Quantity Theory of Money Redux?  Will Inflation Be the Legacy of Quantitative Easing?” Policy Brief  No. PB15-7 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, May 2015). See PB15-7. Published in National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 234, No. 1, November 2015, pp. 15-26.

“Too Much Finance, or Statistical Illusion?” Policy Brief No. PB15-9 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 2015).  See PB15-9.

“Testing the Modigliani-Miller Theorem of Capital Structure Irrelevance for Banks.” Working Paper WP 15-8 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2015). See WP15-8.

“The Financial Sector and Growth in Emerging Asian Economies.” Working Paper WP 15-5 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 2015). See WP15-5.

“Sustainability of Public Debt in the United States and Japan.” Working Paper WP14-9 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2014). See WP14-9.

“Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation.” Working Paper WP14-4 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, July 2014). See WP14-4.

“Sovereign Debt and Asia:  International Lessons and Emerging Issues.”  In Changyong Rhee and Adam S. Posen, eds., Responding to Financial Crisis:  Lessons from Asia Then, the United States and Europe Now.  (Washington:  Asian Development Bank and Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2013, pp. 277-312.)

“Capital Market Integration.”  In Gerard Caprio, ed., The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalizaion, Vol. 3, pp. 269-78. (Oxford:  Elsevier, 2013).  See FinGlo13.

with Joseph E. Gagnon, “Lehman Died, Bagehot Lives:  Why Did the Fed and Treasury Let a Major Wall Street Bank Fail?” Policy Brief  No. PB13-21 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2013).  See PB13-21.

“Debt Restructuring and Economic Prospects in Greece,” Policy Brief No.  PB13-3 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 2013).  See PB13-3.

“Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Italy and Spain:  A Probabilistic Approach.” Working Paper WP12-12 (Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 2012). See WP12-12.

“Restoring Fiscal Equilibrium in the United States,” Policy Brief No. PB12-15 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 2012).  See PB12-15.

“Projecting China’s Current Account Surplus,” Policy Brief No. PB12-7 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2012). See PB12-7.

“Interest Rate Shock and Sustainability of Italy’s Sovereign Debt,” Policy Brief No. PB12-5 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 2012).  See PB12-5.

“Sustainability of Greek Public Debt,” Policy Brief NO. PB11-15 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 2011). See PB11-15.

Carbon Abatement Costs and Climate Change Finance (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 2011, POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 96). See PIIE4

“Exports of Manufactures and Economic Growth:  the Fallacy of Composition Revisited.” In Michael Spence and Danny Leipziger, eds., Globalization and Growth:  Implications for a Post-Crisis World (Washington: World Bank, 2010, pp. 195-234.

with John Williamson, “Currency Wars,” Policy Brief No. PB10-26 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 2010). See PB10-26.

“Renminbi Undervaluation, China’s Surplus, and the US Trade Deficit,” Policy Brief No. PB10-20 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 2010). See PB10-20.

“Economic Analysis and Climate Change Policy:  An Editorial Comment,” Climatic Change, Vol. 101, Issue 3-4, August 2010, pp. 387-94. See Climate2010.

“Long-Term Fiscal Imbalances, US External Liabilities, and Future Living Standards,” in C. Fred Bergsten, ed., The Long-Term International Economic Position of the United States (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, Special Report No. 20, May 2009, pp. 11-34).

with John Williamson, “New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates,” Policy Brief No. PB08-7 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, July 2008).  See PB08-7.

“Estimating Consistent Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates,” Working Paper WP 08-6 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, July 2008).  See WP08-7.  See WP08-7.

with John Williamson, “Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi:  Is There a Consensus, and If Not, Why Not?” in Debating China’s Exchange Rate Policy, Morris Goldstein and Nicholas R. Lardy, eds. (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2008, pp. 131-154.)

“Global Warming and Agriculture.”  Finance and Development, March 2008, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 23-27.

“Global Warming and Agriculture:  New Country Estimates Show Developing Countries Face Declines in Agricultural Productivity,” CGD Brief (Washington:  Center for Global Development, September 2007). See CGD1.

“Comments on the Stern Review.” In Ernesto Zedillo, ed., Yale Symposium on the Stern Review (New Haven:  Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, February 2007, Chapter 6).  See SternCmt07.

with Alan Ahearne, Kyung Tae Lee, Yung Chul Park, Jean Pisani-Ferry, and John Williamson, “Global Imbalances:  Time for Action,” Policy Brief No. PB07-4 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 2007).  See PB07-4.

“Why the U.S. External Imbalance Matters.”  Cato Journal, Winter 2007, vol. 27, no.1, pp. 53-58.

“International Debt:  The Past Quarter-Century and Future Prospects.” In Michael Mussa, ed., C. Fred Bergsten and the World Economy (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2006, pp. 243-274).

“The US External Deficit and Developing Countries,” Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 86, March 2006.  See CGD5.

“The Case for a New Plaza Agreement,” Policy Briefs in International Economics No. PB05-4 (Washington:  Institute for International Economics, December 2005).  See PB05-4.

“Achieving a Grand Bargain in the Doha Round,” CGD/IIE Brief (Washington:  Center for Global Development and Institute for International Economics, 2005). See CGD2.

“Climate Change.”  In Bjorn Lomborg, ed., Global Crises, Global Solutions (London:  Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp. 13-43).  Also “Rejoinder to Perspective Papers 1.1 and 1.2,” in the same volume, pp. 56-61.  (Papers originally prepared for the Copenhagen Consensus, Nacional Environmental Assessment Institute, Denmark; available at www.copenhagenconsensus.com).

“Private Sector Involvement in Financial Crisis Resolution:  Definition, Measurement, and Implementation,” in Andrew G. Haldane, ed., Fixing Financial Crises in the Twenty-first Century (London:  Routledge, 2004, pp. 61-94).  Also available as Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 18, November 2002. See CGD6.

“Restoring Economic Growth in Argentina,”  June 2003 (Washington:  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3158, October 2003).  See Arg03.

“Trading Up:  Trade Policy and Global Poverty,” CGD Brief, vol. 2, issue 4 (Washington:  Center for Global Development, September 2003).  See CGD3.

“Trading Up:  Strengthening AGOA’s Development Potential,” CGD Brief, vol. 2, issue 3 (Washington:  Center for Global Development, June 2003).  See CGD4.

“An Index of Industrial Country Trade Policy toward Developing Countries,” Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 14, October 2002.  See CGD7.

“Financial Crises and Poverty in Emerging Market Economies,” Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 8, June 2002. See CGD8.

“Trade, Immigration, and Wage Distribution,” in Finis Welch, ed., The Causes and Consequences of Increasing Inequality (Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 2001, pp. 241-62.

“The Role of the Private Sector in Resolving Financial Crises in Emerging Markets,” in Martin Feldstein, ed., Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies (Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 2003, pp. 459-96.  (Paper prepared for National Bureau of Economic Research “Conference on Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies,” Woodstock, Vermont, 19-21 October, 2000.)

“Trade and Income Distribution: the Debate and New Evidence,” Policy Brief  No. 99-7 (Washington:  Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 1999).  See PB99-7.

“Discounting for the Very Long Term,” in Paul R. Portney and John P. Weyant, eds., Discounting and Intergenerational Equity (Washington:  Resources for the Future, 1999), pp. 131-40.

with Kevin J.S. Barnes, Spreads and Risk in Emerging Markets Lending (Washington:  Institute of International Finance, Research Papers No. 97-1, December 1997).  See IIF97-1.

“Modelling Economically Efficient Abatement of Greenhouse Gases,” in Yoichi Kaya and Keiichi Yokobori, eds., Environment, Energy, and Economy:  Strategies for Sustainability (Tokyo:  United Nations University Press, 1997), pp. 99-122.

“Crisis Management in Emerging Capital Markets,” in Peter B. Kenen, ed., From Halifax to Lyons:  What Has Been Done about Crisis Management? (Princeton:  Princeton University, International Finance Section, Essays in International Finance No. 200, October 1996), pp. 7-25.

The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture:  Comment,” American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 5, December 1996, pp. 1309-11.

with D.W. Pearce, A.N. Anchanta, S. Fankhauser, R.K. Pachauri, R.S.J. Tol, and P. Vellinga.  “The Social Costs of Climate Change: Greenhouse Damage and the Benefits of Control,” in James P. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, and Erik F. Haites, eds., Climate Change 1995:  Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (Cambridge, England:  Cambridge University Press), pp. 178-224.

with K.J. Arrow, K. G. Maler, M. Munasinghe, R. Squitieri, and J.E. Stiglitz.  “Intertemporal Equity, Discounting, and Economic Efficiency,” in James P. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, and Erik F. Haites, eds., Climate Change 1995:  Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (Cambridge, England:  Cambridge University Press), pp. 125-44.

“Argentina:  Economic Reform and Growth in the 1990s,” EXIM Review, vol. 14, no. 2, March 1995, pp. 1-116 (Tokyo:  Export-Import Bank of Japan).

Predicting External Imbalances for the United States and Japan (Washington: Institute for International Economics, Sept. 1995, POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 41)

“Evaluating the Uruguay Round,” The World Economy, vol. 18, no. 1, January 1995, pp. 1-23.

“Costs and Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Abatement:  A Guide to Policy Analysis,” in OECD, The Economics of Climate Change (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1994, pp. 87-105.

“Optimal Carbon Emissions Over Time:  Experiments with the Nordhaus DICE Model.”  Mimeographed. August, 1992. (Washington:  Institute for International Economics).  See DICE92.

“Scientific Basis for the Greenhouse Effect,” Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No. 407, July 1991, pp. 904-19

Mexico:  Economic Reform and Development Strategy, Export Import Bank of Japan, EXIM Review, Special Issue, Fall 1991

“The Baker Plan and Brady Reformulation,” in Ishrat Husain and Ishac Diwan, eds., Dealing with the Debt Crisis: A World Bank Symposium (Washington: World Bank, 1989), pp. 176-93.

Mobilizing Bank Lending to Debtor Countries (Washington, D.C.:  Institute for International Economics,  POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 18, June 1987).

 Informatics and Development: Trade and Industrial Policy in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico (Washington, D.C.: Economics International, Inc., 1987).

“U.S. Trade and Industrial Policy:  The Experience of Textiles, Steel, and Automobiles,” in Paul R. Krugman, ed.,  Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economics (Cambridge, Mass.:  MIT Press, 1986), pp. 211-  39.

with C. Fred Bergsten, The United States – Japan Economic Problem (Washington, D.C.:  Institute for International Economics, POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 13, October 1985).

“International Debt:  From Crisis to Recovery?”  American Economic Review, 75(2), May 1985, pp. 185-190.

“International Debt:  Analysis, Experience, and Prospects,” Journal of Development Planning No. 16, 1985, pp. 25-56.

with C. Fred Bergsten and John Williamson, Bank Lending to Developing Countries: The Policy Alternatives (Washington, D.C.:  Institute for International Economics, POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 10, April 1985).

International Debt and the Stability of the World Economy (Washington, DC:  Institute for International Economics, POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 4, September 1983).

“Reciprocity”:  A New Approach to World Trade Policy?  (Washington, DC:  Institute for International Economics, POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 2, September 1982)

“Can the East Asian Model of Development be Generalized?” World Development, vol. 10, No. 2, February 1982, pp. 81-90.

“Commodity Prices and the World Distribution of Income,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 2(1), January 1980, pp. 1-17.

with Nicholas P. Sargen, “Performance Criteria and Multilateral Aid Allocation,” World Development 3(6), June 1975, pp. 383-91.

“Distribution and Development:  A Survey of Literature, Journal of Development Economics, 1 (1975), 359-400.

“Cost-Benefit Analysis of Irrigation Projects in Northeastern Brazil,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 55(4): 622-27; November, 1973.

with Charles R. Frank, Jr., “Measurement of Debt Servicing Capacity: An Application of Discriminant Analysis,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1971, pp. 327-44.

Periodic Issues of “Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates” (FEERs)

See:  Nov18Nov17May17Nov16May16Nov15May15;  Nov14May14Nov13May13Nov12May12Nov11May11Nov10May10Jan10Jun09Jul08.